Topic: 'Aliens Cause Global Warming' (Read 6081 times)

Min · « **on:** November 13, 2008, 04:29:23 PM »

Found this in the opinion section of the Wall Street Journal:

From a lecture delivered by the late Michael Crichton at the California Institute of Technology on Jan. 17, 2003:

Cast your minds back to 1960. John F. Kennedy is president, commercial jet airplanes are just appearing, the biggest university mainframes have 12K of memory. And in Green Bank, West Virginia at the new National Radio Astronomy Observatory, a young astrophysicist named Frank Drake runs a two-week project called Ozma, to search for extraterrestrial signals. A signal is received, to great excitement. It turns out to be false, but the excitement remains. In 1960, Drake organizes the first SETI conference, and came up with the now-famous Drake equation:

N=N*fp ne fl fi fc fL

Where N is the number of stars in the Milky Way galaxy; fp is the fraction with planets; ne is the number of planets per star capable of supporting life; fl is the fraction of planets where life evolves; fi is the fraction where intelligent life evolves; and fc is the fraction that communicates; and fL is the fraction of the planet's life during which the communicating civilizations live.

This serious-looking equation gave SETI a serious footing as a legitimate intellectual inquiry. The problem, of course, is that none of the terms can be known, and most cannot even be estimated. The only way to work the equation is to fill in with guesses. And guesses -- just so we're clear -- are merely expressions of prejudice. Nor can there be "informed guesses." If you need to state how many planets with life choose to communicate, there is simply no way to make an informed guess. It's simply prejudice.

The Drake equation can have any value from "billions and billions" to zero. An expression that can mean anything means nothing. Speaking precisely, the Drake equation is literally meaningless, and has nothing to do with science. I take the hard view that science involves the creation of testable hypotheses. The Drake equation cannot be tested and therefore SETI is not science. SETI is unquestionably a religion. . . .

The fact that the Drake equation was not greeted with screams of outrage -- similar to the screams of outrage that greet each Creationist new claim, for example -- meant that now there was a crack in the door, a loosening of the definition of what constituted legitimate scientific procedure. And soon enough, pernicious garbage began to squeeze through the cracks. . . .

I want to pause here and talk about this notion of consensus, and the rise of what has been called consensus science. I regard consensus science as an extremely pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you're being had.

Let's be clear: The work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus.

There is no such thing as consensus science. If it's consensus, it isn't science. If it's science, it isn't consensus. Period. . . .

I would remind you to notice where the claim of consensus is invoked. Consensus is invoked only in situations where the science is not solid enough. Nobody says the consensus of scientists agrees that E=mc2. Nobody says the consensus is that the sun is 93 million miles away. It would never occur to anyone to speak that way. . . .

To an outsider, the most significant innovation in the global warming controversy is the overt reliance that is being placed on models. Back in the days of nuclear winter, computer models were invoked to add weight to a conclusion: "These results are derived with the help of a computer model." But now large-scale computer models are seen as generating data in themselves. No longer are models judged by how well they reproduce data from the real world -- increasingly, models provide the data. As if they were themselves a reality. And indeed they are, when we are projecting forward. There can be no observational data about the year 2100. There are only model runs.

This fascination with computer models is something I understand very well. Richard Feynman called it a disease. I fear he is right. Because only if you spend a lot of time looking at a computer screen can you arrive at the complex point where the global warming debate now stands.

Nobody believes a weather prediction twelve hours ahead. Now we're asked to believe a prediction that goes out 100 years into the future? And make financial investments based on that prediction? Has everybody lost their minds?

12AX7 · « **Reply #1 on:** November 13, 2008, 04:43:30 PM »

The aliens are actually trying to help us. It's the cattle flatulence that's causing climate change; and the aliens know this. So - when they can (it's not easy cavorting around humankind unseen) - they peel off and take out a few of our cattle (and at times various other animals); usually the ones with digestive problems which create more methane. These aliens have been seen by our own local aliens in the Southwestern US; who call these aliens the chupacabre.
Happy to help.

BizB · « **Reply #2 on:** November 13, 2008, 04:57:16 PM »

OMG! Zorgon bait in a different pond! I wonder how strong his sense of smell is.

BizB · « **Reply #3 on:** November 13, 2008, 05:03:45 PM »

Oh, and the cows are trying to kill the aliens, too. I have proof.

http://jayisgames.com/cgdc5/?gameID=12

Joe Sixpack · « **Reply #4 on:** November 14, 2008, 10:09:22 AM »

The Drake Equation is not really meant to be "hard science" like the theory of relativity. It's an intellectual exercise, and it's meant to show you how, given the vastness of Outer Space, small changes in any of the variables can lead to ridiculous numbers of extraterrestrial civilizations (which leads right into the "why aren't they here" question). You can blame other scientists who misinterpreted or otherwise have an "anthropic" bias toward our place in the universe, but you can say that about almost anything. I would expect a guy like Michael Crichton to know this, if indeed he actually wrote any of it...

kanca mosan · « **Reply #5 on:** November 14, 2008, 10:54:22 AM »

Quote from: 12AX7 on November 13, 2008, 04:43:30 PM

The aliens are actually trying to help us. It's the cattle flatulence that's causing climate change; and the aliens know this. So - when they can (it's not easy cavorting around humankind unseen) - they peel off and take out a few of our cattle (and at times various other animals); usually the ones with digestive problems which create more methane. These aliens have been seen by our own local aliens in the Southwestern US; who call these aliens the chupacabre.
Happy to help.

Those damn chupacabras.

xolik · « **Reply #6 on:** November 14, 2008, 01:13:33 PM »

Do I still have to give all my money to Al Gore?

pbsaurus · « **Reply #7 on:** November 14, 2008, 02:34:41 PM »

Yes but he requested you send it to me for proper handling first.

jeee · « **Reply #8 on:** November 21, 2008, 04:22:39 PM »

You guys didn't even see stargate.

uber.munkee · « **Reply #9 on:** November 22, 2008, 08:26:45 AM »

Every Pastafarian knows it's the lack of Pirates that is causing global warming!!!

http://www.venganza.org/piratesarecool4.gif

ivan · « **Reply #10 on:** November 24, 2008, 10:41:31 AM »

Quote from: jeee on November 21, 2008, 04:22:39 PM

You guys didn't even see stargate.

Haha.

It aired here Friday night, but I didn't watch it until last night.

Chris · « **Reply #11 on:** December 02, 2008, 02:25:34 AM »

Quote from: Detta on November 13, 2008, 04:29:23 PM

Nobody believes a weather prediction twelve hours ahead. Now we're asked to believe a prediction that goes out 100 years into the future? And make financial investments based on that prediction? Has everybody lost their minds?

Sorry for the late reply, but I agree with this section of the article. It's funny that meteorologists haven't yet discovered exactly why tornadoes occur on the planet, but yet they claim to know exactly why global warming is occurring.

Wunderkind · « **Reply #12 on:** December 02, 2008, 02:42:40 AM »

Quote from: Chris on December 02, 2008, 02:25:34 AM

Sorry for the late reply, but I agree with this section of the article. It's funny that meteorologists haven't yet discovered exactly why tornadoes occur on the planet, but yet they claim to know exactly why global warming is occurring.

Nonsense. Everyone knows that tornadoes occur because we keep building trailer parks.

kanca mosan · « **Reply #13 on:** December 03, 2008, 03:58:27 PM »

Quote from: uber.munkee on November 22, 2008, 08:26:45 AM

Every Pastafarian knows it's the lack of Pirates that is causing global warming!!!

http://www.venganza.org/piratesarecool4.gif

What lack of pirates? Somalia ring a bell?

Quote from: Chris on December 02, 2008, 02:25:34 AM

Sorry for the late reply, but I agree with this section of the article. It's funny that meteorologists haven't yet discovered exactly why tornadoes occur on the planet, but yet they claim to know exactly why global warming is occurring.

What do you mean? We know how tornadoes are formed. Scientists seem to have good theories about global warming. There is a significant correlation between increased GHGs and an increase in temp. However, I actually believe in the theory that increased temperatures is saving us from an ice age.

Joe Sixpack · « **Reply #14 on:** December 03, 2008, 04:04:02 PM »

Do you mean CFCs?
CFCs destroy ozone.

kanca mosan · « **Reply #15 on:** December 03, 2008, 04:09:43 PM »

GHGs trap heat.

uber.munkee · « **Reply #16 on:** December 03, 2008, 04:37:20 PM »

Quote from: kanca mosan on December 03, 2008, 03:58:27 PM

What lack of pirates? Somalia ring a bell?

There is a distinct lack of golden age pirates, real pirates if you will!

kanca mosan · « **Reply #17 on:** December 03, 2008, 04:41:10 PM »

Quote from: uber.munkee on December 03, 2008, 04:37:20 PM

There is a distinct lack of golden age pirates, real pirates if you will!

Ahhh. Specificity is useful.

News:

Recent Forum Posts

Shout Box

Author Topic: 'Aliens Cause Global Warming' (Read 6081 times)

12AX7